Goldman Sachs sharply lowers copper price forecast for 2025
Moscow. September 4. INTERFAX.RU – Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have sharply lowered their copper price forecast for 2025, noting that the increase in demand for the metal they had expected is not yet in sight, as the crisis in the Chinese real estate market drags on.
According to Goldman’s new forecast, the average copper price next year will be $10.1 thousand per ton. Four months ago, the investment bank’s experts expected copper prices to rise to a record $15 thousand per ton.
“The rally in the copper market is delayed,” says a Goldman review cited by the Financial Times.
Analysts note that the pace of decline in demand for the metal in China has accelerated in recent months.
“We believe that given the ongoing problems in China’s real estate sector, the depletion of copper reserves and, accordingly, the rise in metal prices will occur much later than we previously thought,” the experts write.
The copper price on the LME fell by 2.6% on Tuesday, to $8,947.5 per ton. This led to a sharp drop in mining stocks.
The metal price rose above $11,000 per ton in May this year, but has since fallen by almost 20%. Global copper stocks are at a four-year high, and in China they reached their highest value this summer since March 2020, that is, since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Goldman analysts also lowered their aluminum price forecast for 2025 – to $2,540 per ton from $2,850 per ton.