The copper market continued to decline on Tuesday, April 15: the three-month LME contract fell to $9166.5 per tonne, and in the morning trading on Wednesday, April 16, copper traded at $9098 per tonne (3-month LME contract) and $9,065 per tonne (LME spot). On NYMEX, the April contract was worth $9987 per ton, and the July contract was worth $10053 per ton. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE), the May contract is $10,224 per ton, and the July contract is $10,197 per ton (prices include VAT).
The main reasons for the decline
Escalation of the US-China trade war: New tariffs imposed by the administration of US President Donald Trump and China’s retaliatory measures (including halting purchases of Boeing aircraft and banning the export of Nvidia H20 chips) have increased uncertainty in the markets and raised concerns about the prospects for global economic growth.
Expectations of a slowdown in demand: Analysts at Citi and JPMorgan predict a weak copper market in the next 3-6 months, expecting a decline in global consumption and production activity due to the duties imposed. Citi raised its short-term forecast for the copper price to $8,800 per ton.
Investor reaction: The market remains extremely sensitive to the news, and many participants consider Trump’s statements not always feasible, but fear short-term negative consequences for the US economy and global demand for copper.
Price support factors
Reduction of copper reserves in Shanghai: Since February 24, stocks have decreased by 32%, which provides some support to prices, despite the overall negative background.
China’s economic growth in the first quarter: China showed stronger-than-expected figures for consumption and industrial production, but analysts believe that the effect will be contained due to the threat of new duties from the United States.
Market dynamics and forecasts
Sharp drop since the beginning of April: Copper lost up to 11% of its value in a week after the introduction of new tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures. The Bloomberg Commodity index showed the worst performance in more than a year, reflecting a general deterioration in expectations for demand for raw materials.
Expectations of further decline: Banks and analysts (Citi, JPMorgan) predict that the copper market will remain weak in the coming months, although the pace of decline may slow due to infrastructural demand in China and a limited supply of scrap.
Metal quotes for April 16, 2025
| Stock market/Contract | Aluminum | Copper | Lead | Nickel | Tin | Zinc |
| LME (cash) | $2324 | $9065 | $1874.5 | $15230 | $30710 | $2544 |
| LME (3 months.) | $2365 | $9098 | $1894.5 | $15430 | $31000 | $2567.5 |
| ShFE (May 2025) | $2662 | $10224 | $2259.5 | $16841 | $34619.5 | $3008.5 |
| ShFE (July 2025) | $2647 | $10197 | $2256.5 | $16872 | $34672.5 | $2953 |
| NYMEX (April 2025) | — | $9987 | — | — | — | — |
| NYMEX (July 2025) | — | $10053 | — | — | — | — |
The copper market is under intense pressure due to trade conflicts between the United States and China, which increases concerns about global economic growth and demand for metals. Despite some supportive factors (declining inventories, infrastructure demand in China), analysts maintain a subdued or negative outlook for the coming months, anticipating continued volatility and possible further price declines.